Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 23% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joëlle MÉLIN

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.7%
  • Left (NFP) 23.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.7%
  • LR and allies 8.9%
  • Greens 2.1%
  • Others 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 9ème circonscription 49.7%23.0%13.7%8.9%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +5.7 32.3% −9.3 14.1% −0.3 5.9% +3.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.7 29.5% −6.5 20.6% −6.9 12.2% −3.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+26.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joëlle MÉLIN Elected RN and allies 30,188 45.2 —
Bernard OUGOURLOU-OGLOU Left (NFP) 15,867 23.8 —
Bertrand MAS-FRAISSINET Centre (Ensemble) 12,465 18.7 —
Aurélien MICHEL LR and allies 5,128 7.7 —
Boualam AKSIL Greens 1,790 2.7 —
Robert SANTUNIONE RN and allies 979 1.5 —
Jean-Marie CLOREC Far left 319 0.5 —
Isabelle MAZZONI Others 50 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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