Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 14ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 14ème circonscription: can the RN and its allies hold this seat?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 14ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 36% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Gérault VERNY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
24%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.9%
  • Left (NFP) 28.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.0%
  • LR and allies 6.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.0%
  • Greens 0.9%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 14ème circonscription 35.9%28.7%24.0%6.9%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% −8.1 32.3% −3.5 14.1% +9.9 5.9% +1.1
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.1 29.5% −0.7 20.6% +3.4 12.2% −5.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gérault VERNY Elected RN and allies 21,734 31.6 —
Jean-David CIOT Left (NFP) 20,242 29.5 —
Anne-Laurence PETEL Centre (Ensemble) 19,853 28.9 —
Gaëtan MUSELET LR and allies 3,869 5.6 —
Dominique SASSOON Greens 1,010 1.5 —
Charles MOYAL RN and allies 827 1.2 —
Mireille DUFAY Sovereignists 635 0.9 —
Anne ROCHE Far left 470 0.7 —
Baptiste BOUCKENHOVE LR and allies 30 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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