Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 12ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 58% vote share, against 23% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Franck ALLISIO

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 58.1%
  • Left (NFP) 23.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 8.9%
  • LR and allies 6.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 12ème circonscription 58.1%23.2%8.9%6.8%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +14.2 32.3% −9.0 14.1% −5.2 5.9% +1.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +22.2 29.5% −6.3 20.6% −11.7 12.2% −5.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+34.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Franck ALLISIO Elected RN and allies 33,086 54.1 —
Maryline CZURKA Left (NFP) 14,746 24.1 —
Axel BRETON Centre (Ensemble) 8,508 13.9 —
Maxime AGHEMO LR and allies 3,456 5.7 —
Raymonde ZINI RN and allies 836 1.4 —
François ROCHE Far left 561 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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