Riding profile

Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bouches-du-Rhône

The question

Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bouches-du-Rhône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 54% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Romain BAUBRY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 54.1%
  • Left (NFP) 19.4%
  • LR and allies 12.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.1%
  • Others 2.6%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereBouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription 54.1%19.4%12.1%11.1%
Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône 44.0% +10.1 32.3% −12.9 5.9% +6.2 14.1% −3.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +18.1 29.5% −10.1 12.2% −0.1 20.6% −9.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+34.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Romain BAUBRY Elected RN and allies 37,493 49.5 —
Wassila AÏDAROUS Left (NFP) 15,314 20.2 —
Solange PONCHON Centre (Ensemble) 12,202 16.1 —
Stephane HERMELLIN LR and allies 8,272 10.9 —
Martine ELESIKIAN RN and allies 1,414 1.9 —
Anne TESTUT Far left 617 0.8 —
Christophe PTAK Others 457 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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