Riding profile

Vaucluse — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vaucluse

The question

Vaucluse — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Vaucluse — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vaucluse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine RIMBERT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.0%
  • Left (NFP) 26.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.2%
  • LR and allies 7.4%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVaucluse — 5ème circonscription 49.0%26.3%15.2%7.4%
Provincial averageVaucluse 50.4% −1.3 26.2% +0.1 13.0% +2.2 7.2% +0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.1 29.5% −3.2 20.6% −5.3 12.2% −4.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine RIMBERT Elected RN and allies 25,415 45.0
Céline CELCE Left (NFP) 15,329 27.2
Adrien MORENAS Centre (Ensemble) 11,454 20.3
Martin LEFEVRE LR and allies 3,512 6.2
Alexandre DESHAIES RN and allies 734 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next