Riding profile

Vaucluse — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vaucluse

The question

Vaucluse — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Vaucluse — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vaucluse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie-France LORHO

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.1%
  • Left (NFP) 18.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.3%
  • LR and allies 8.8%
  • Others 3.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVaucluse — 4ème circonscription 56.1%18.8%12.3%8.8%
Provincial averageVaucluse 50.4% +5.8 26.2% −7.4 13.0% −0.7 7.2% +1.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.2 29.5% −10.7 20.6% −8.3 12.2% −3.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+37.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-France LORHO Elected RN and allies 30,192 49.9 —
Monia GALVEZ Left (NFP) 11,887 19.6 —
Lise Anne Sophie CHAUVOT Centre (Ensemble) 10,449 17.3 —
David MARSEILLE LR and allies 2,685 4.4 —
Marie-Claude BOMPARD RN and allies 2,125 3.5 —
Bruno COULON LR and allies 1,893 3.1 —
Anne Marie HAUTANT Others 729 1.2 —
Nicolas PETILLOT Far left 556 0.9 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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