Riding profile
Cantal — 1ère circonscription
The question
Cantal — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Cantal — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Cantal, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 39% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Vincent DESCOEUR
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCantal — 1ère circonscription | 38.7% | 34.1% | 21.6% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageCantal | 41.6% −2.9 | 35.3% −1.2 | 17.2% +4.4 | 3.0% −0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +26.5 | 36.0% −1.9 | 29.5% −7.9 | 20.6% −17.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent DESCOEUR Elected | LR and allies | 16,615 | 37.7 | — |
| Dorothée GALLAIS | RN and allies | 13,361 | 30.3 | — |
| Valérie RUEDA | Left (NFP) | 9,893 | 22.4 | — |
| Denis SABOT | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,377 | 7.7 | — |
| Rémy DAUVILLIER | Far left | 458 | 1.0 | — |
| Jean-Jacques BRUXELLE | RN and allies | 410 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Aveyron — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Cantal — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aveyron — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Lot — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Corrèze — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Corrèze — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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