Riding profile

Cantal — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Cantal

The question

Cantal — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Cantal — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Cantal, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 45% vote share, against 36% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean Yves BONY

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 44.5%
  • RN and allies 36.5%
  • Left (NFP) 12.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereCantal — 2ème circonscription 44.5%36.5%12.8%3.4%
Provincial averageCantal 41.6% +2.9 35.3% +1.2 17.2% −4.4 3.0% +0.4
National averageFrance 12.2% +32.3 36.0% +0.5 29.5% −16.7 20.6% −17.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean Yves BONY Elected LR and allies 12,383 34.3 —
Gilles LACROIX RN and allies 11,923 33.0 —
Zoé PÉBAY Left (NFP) 4,919 13.6 —
Louis TOTY LR and allies 3,348 9.3 —
Vladimir TILMANT-TATISCHEFF Centre (Ensemble) 3,019 8.4 —
Mona CHEIKHI Far left 298 0.8 —
Pascal VEYSSET-RAPAPORT RN and allies 220 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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