Riding profile

Haute-Loire — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Loire

The question

Haute-Loire — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Haute-Loire — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Loire, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 40% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-Pierre VIGIER

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 39.7%
  • RN and allies 34.9%
  • Left (NFP) 18.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereHaute-Loire — 2ème circonscription 39.7%34.9%18.7%3.3%
Provincial averageHaute-Loire 38.8% +0.9 36.0% −1.0 18.3% +0.4 3.9% −0.6
National averageFrance 12.2% +27.5 36.0% −1.1 29.5% −10.8 20.6% −17.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Pierre VIGIER Elected LR and allies 21,573 38.7
Suzanne Maryse Denise FOURETS RN and allies 17,885 32.1
Andre Antoine Célestin CHAPAVEIRE Left (NFP) 10,898 19.6
Patricia Pierrette GIRE-JOUBERT Centre (Ensemble) 4,607 8.3
Antoine BREBION Far left 795 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
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