Riding profile
Loire — 4ème circonscription
The question
Loire — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Loire — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the LR right, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sylvie BONNET
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 70%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 60%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoire — 4ème circonscription | 41.5% | 30.3% | 24.4% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 38.6% +3.0 | 21.6% +8.7 | 27.8% −3.3 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +5.6 | 12.2% +18.1 | 29.5% −5.0 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerbert RAMBAUD | RN and allies | 28,753 | 40.8 | — |
| Sylvie BONNET Elected | LR and allies | 21,649 | 30.7 | — |
| Bernard PAEMELAERE | Left (NFP) | 18,700 | 26.5 | — |
| Nora IBBARI | Far left | 1,368 | 1.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Rhône — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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