Riding profile

Rhône — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 10ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rhône — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Thomas GASSILLOUD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
71%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
57%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.4%
  • Left (NFP) 22.8%
  • LR and allies 12.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereRhône — 10ème circonscription 35.1%27.4%22.8%12.0%
Provincial averageRhône 29.2% +5.9 20.4% +7.1 36.0% −13.2 12.4% −0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.9 20.6% +6.9 29.5% −6.7 12.2% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thomas GASSILLOUD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 23,964 32.5
Cecile PATOUT RN and allies 22,942 31.1
Florence Janine Jacqueline PERRIN Left (NFP) 17,412 23.6
Sophie CRUZ LR and allies 6,689 9.1
David HORNUS LR and allies 1,296 1.8
Irène BERENYI GELEY RN and allies 788 1.1
Gilles BOMPARD Far left 551 0.8
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next