Riding profile

Rhône — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 12ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rhône — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Cyrille ISAAC-SIBILLE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
58%
Mean margin (pts)
0.1
P(close race)
75%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 29.2%
  • RN and allies 29.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 23.8%
  • LR and allies 15.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereRhône — 12ème circonscription 29.2%29.1%23.8%15.1%
Provincial averageRhône 36.0% −6.9 29.2% −0.1 20.4% +3.4 12.4% +2.6
National averageFrance 29.5% −0.3 36.0% −6.9 20.6% +3.2 12.2% +2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lucie GAILLOT DURAND Left (NFP) 18,039 30.1 —
Cyrille ISAAC-SIBILLE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,333 28.9 —
Clémence LUISIER RN and allies 14,989 25.0 —
Pascal CHARMOT LR and allies 8,341 13.9 —
Noémie GALLICE RN and allies 732 1.2 —
Cécile FAURITE Far left 576 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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