Riding profile

Rhône — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Rhône — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 37% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sandrine RUNEL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
11.2
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 37.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.1%
  • RN and allies 22.0%
  • LR and allies 11.6%
  • Others 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereRhône — 4ème circonscription 37.3%26.1%22.0%11.6%
Provincial averageRhône 36.0% +1.3 20.4% +5.7 29.2% −7.1 12.4% −0.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +7.8 20.6% +5.5 36.0% −13.9 12.2% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sandrine RUNEL Elected Left (NFP) 22,959 38.0 —
Anne BRUGNERA Centre (Ensemble) 18,744 31.0 —
Yannick CHAUMONT RN and allies 10,818 17.9 —
Romain BILLARD LR and allies 6,268 10.4 —
Armande TORRENT RN and allies 655 1.1 —
Julien QUEVY Greens 502 0.8 —
Coralie LAURENT Far left 329 0.5 —
Juliette VEL Others 143 0.2 —
Tristan JEGO Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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