Riding profile

Rhône — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Rhône — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 49% vote share, against 20% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Boris TAVERNIER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 48.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 20.1%
  • RN and allies 18.0%
  • LR and allies 8.9%
  • Others 3.6%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereRhône — 2ème circonscription 48.6%20.1%18.0%8.9%
Provincial averageRhône 36.0% +12.6 20.4% −0.3 29.2% −11.1 12.4% −3.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +19.2 20.6% −0.5 36.0% −17.9 12.2% −3.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Boris TAVERNIER Elected Left (NFP) 28,567 49.6 —
Loïc TERRENES Centre (Ensemble) 14,455 25.1 —
Anaëlle BISLEAU RN and allies 8,228 14.3 —
Maryll GUILLOTEAU LR and allies 4,456 7.7 —
Karim MAHMOUD-VINTAM Others 731 1.3 —
Vanessa ETENNE RN and allies 456 0.8 —
Delphine BRIDAY Far left 297 0.5 —
Pascal COULAN Others 148 0.3 —
Michaël JOUTEUX Far left 133 0.2 —
Nizar TOUIHRI Others 63 0.1 —
Anthony BRUNO Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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