Riding profile

Rhône — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Rhône — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 25% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anaïs BELOUASSA-CHERIFI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 41.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.6%
  • RN and allies 21.9%
  • LR and allies 7.0%
  • Others 2.2%
  • Greens 1.7%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereRhône — 1ère circonscription 41.9%24.6%21.9%7.0%
Provincial averageRhône 36.0% +5.9 20.4% +4.2 29.2% −7.2 12.4% −5.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +12.4 20.6% +4.0 36.0% −14.0 12.2% −5.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anaïs BELOUASSA-CHERIFI Elected Left (NFP) 22,045 42.6 —
Thomas RUDIGOZ Centre (Ensemble) 15,275 29.5 —
Laurent MOUTON RN and allies 9,361 18.1 —
Grégory SANSOZ LR and allies 3,005 5.8 —
Anne THIRIAT Greens 1,165 2.3 —
Brandon ALVES RN and allies 413 0.8 —
Jim BUGNI Far left 353 0.7 —
Guillaume EYMERIC Others 109 0.2 —
Ivanka LOPOUCHANSKY Far left 2 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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