Riding profile

Rhône — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Rhône — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Blandine BROCARD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
63%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 29.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.9%
  • Left (NFP) 25.6%
  • LR and allies 15.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereRhône — 5ème circonscription 29.8%26.9%25.6%15.1%
Provincial averageRhône 29.2% +0.6 20.4% +6.6 36.0% −10.4 12.4% +2.7
National averageFrance 36.0% −6.2 20.6% +6.4 29.5% −3.9 12.2% +2.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Blandine BROCARD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,402 32.0 —
Fabrice MATTEUCCI Left (NFP) 17,701 26.5 —
Sasha BITOUM RN and allies 16,962 25.4 —
Bastien JOINT LR and allies 9,321 13.9 —
Mathieu BAZIN RN and allies 1,001 1.5 —
Hélène RIVIERE Far left 410 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next