Riding profile

Rhône — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Rhône

The question

Rhône — 11ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Rhône — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Rhône, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 22% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-Luc FUGIT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
17.7
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 39.9%
  • Left (NFP) 22.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.0%
  • LR and allies 11.0%
  • Greens 2.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereRhône — 11ème circonscription 39.9%22.1%22.0%11.0%
Provincial averageRhône 29.2% +10.7 36.0% −13.9 20.4% +1.6 12.4% −1.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.9 29.5% −7.3 20.6% +1.4 12.2% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexandre HUMBERT DUPALAIS RN and allies 25,371 36.8 —
Jean-Luc FUGIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,564 26.9 —
Abdel YOUSFI Left (NFP) 15,765 22.9 —
Cindy FERRO LR and allies 6,708 9.7 —
Sophie SPENNATO Greens 1,974 2.9 —
Isabelle BROWNING Far left 550 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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