Riding profile

Loire — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loire

The question

Loire — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Loire — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emmanuel MANDON

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
15.9
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.7%
  • Left (NFP) 27.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereLoire — 3ème circonscription 43.7%27.8%24.0%2.0%
Provincial averageLoire 38.6% +5.1 27.8% 16.7% +7.3 2.0%
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.7 29.5% −1.7 20.6% +3.5 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Angelina LA MARCA RN and allies 22,813 40.9
Emmanuel MANDON Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,243 29.1
Vincent BONY Left (NFP) 15,254 27.3
Rachid DAOUD Left (NFP) 754 1.4
Pauline HUSSEINI Far left 727 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next