Riding profile
Loire — 3ème circonscription
The question
Loire — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Loire — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Emmanuel MANDON
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.9
- P(close race)
- 4%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoire — 3ème circonscription | 43.7% | 27.8% | 24.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 38.6% +5.1 | 27.8% | 16.7% +7.3 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.7 | 29.5% −1.7 | 20.6% +3.5 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelina LA MARCA | RN and allies | 22,813 | 40.9 | — |
| Emmanuel MANDON Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,243 | 29.1 | — |
| Vincent BONY | Left (NFP) | 15,254 | 27.3 | — |
| Rachid DAOUD | Left (NFP) | 754 | 1.4 | — |
| Pauline HUSSEINI | Far left | 727 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loire — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Rhône — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Rhône — 11ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Rhône — 12ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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