Riding profile
Loire — 2ème circonscription
The question
Loire — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Loire — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrée TAURINYA
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 95%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.0
- P(close race)
- 9%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoire — 2ème circonscription | 41.7% | 29.7% | 23.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 27.8% +13.9 | 38.6% −8.9 | 21.6% +2.3 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +12.2 | 36.0% −6.3 | 12.2% +11.7 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrée TAURINYA Elected | Left (NFP) | 13,652 | 43.1 | — |
| Hervé BREUIL | RN and allies | 8,595 | 27.1 | — |
| Eric LE JAOUEN | LR and allies | 7,310 | 23.1 | — |
| Martial MOSSMANN | Centre (Ensemble) | 871 | 2.8 | — |
| Nathalie DOUSPIS | Greens | 650 | 2.0 | — |
| Sophie DIETERICH | Far left | 439 | 1.4 | — |
| Quentin FONTVIEILLE | Centre (Ensemble) | 162 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Loire — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Rhône — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ardèche — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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