Riding profile

Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Loire

The question

Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Loire, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 37% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laurent WAUQUIEZ

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 37.8%
  • RN and allies 37.0%
  • Left (NFP) 17.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 4.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereHaute-Loire — 1ère circonscription 37.8%37.0%17.8%4.5%
Provincial averageHaute-Loire 38.8% −0.9 36.0% +1.1 18.3% −0.4 3.9% +0.6
National averageFrance 12.2% +25.6 36.0% +1.0 29.5% −11.7 20.6% −16.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laurent WAUQUIEZ Elected LR and allies 27,013 36.8 —
Alexandre HEUZEY RN and allies 25,091 34.2 —
Celline GACON Left (NFP) 13,694 18.7 —
Cécile Marcelle GALLIEN Centre (Ensemble) 6,932 9.4 —
Electre DRACOS Far left 668 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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