Riding profile

Ardèche — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ardèche

The question

Ardèche — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Ardèche — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardèche, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Vincent TREBUCHET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 39.7%
  • Left (NFP) 24.1%
  • LR and allies 16.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.4%
  • Others 5.5%
  • Sovereignists 0.9%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereArdèche — 2ème circonscription 39.7%24.1%16.5%12.4%
Provincial averageArdèche 39.7% 29.6% −5.5 17.0% −0.4 8.4% +4.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.7 29.5% −5.4 12.2% +4.3 20.6% −8.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent TREBUCHET Elected RN and allies 24,417 35.8 —
Michèle VICTORY Left (NFP) 17,051 25.0 —
Laurence HEYDEL GRILLERE Centre (Ensemble) 11,904 17.4 —
Jean-Paul VALLON LR and allies 10,509 15.4 —
Rémy NODIN Others 2,197 3.2 —
Gérard MONTREYNAUD RN and allies 777 1.1 —
Jacky RITZ Sovereignists 613 0.9 —
Michèle GAILLARD Far left 609 0.9 —
Gérard JULIEN Others 213 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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