Riding profile

Ardèche — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Ardèche

The question

Ardèche — 1ère circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Ardèche — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardèche, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 37% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hervé SAULIGNAC

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
6.4
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.7%
  • Left (NFP) 37.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 7.2%
  • LR and allies 6.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereArdèche — 1ère circonscription 43.7%37.3%7.2%6.8%
Provincial averageArdèche 39.7% +4.0 29.6% +7.7 8.4% −1.1 17.0% −10.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.7 29.5% +7.8 20.6% −13.3 12.2% −5.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Céline PORQUET RN and allies 21,736 40.0 —
Hervé SAULIGNAC Elected Left (NFP) 20,809 38.2 —
Séverine GINEYS Centre (Ensemble) 6,651 12.2 —
Marie-Pierre CHAIX LR and allies 3,067 5.6 —
Thierry DORNE Sovereignists 651 1.2 —
Muriel VANDER DONCKT Far left 518 0.9 —
Maryse LECLERC RN and allies 506 0.9 —
Pascal CHAMBONNET Far left 474 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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