Riding profile

Ardèche — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ardèche

The question

Ardèche — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Ardèche — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ardèche, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Fabrice BRUN

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
52%
Mean margin (pts)
8.1
P(close race)
93%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.6%
  • LR and allies 27.6%
  • Left (NFP) 27.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 5.5%
  • Others 2.6%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereArdèche — 3ème circonscription 35.6%27.6%27.4%5.5%
Provincial averageArdèche 39.7% −4.0 17.0% +10.6 29.6% −2.2 8.4% −2.9
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.4 12.2% +15.4 29.5% −2.1 20.6% −15.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cyrille GRANGIER RN and allies 18,328 31.9 —
Florence PALLOT Left (NFP) 16,239 28.3 —
Fabrice BRUN Elected LR and allies 15,194 26.5 —
Quentin BONNETAIN Centre (Ensemble) 5,984 10.4 —
Christophe MARCHISIO Far left 482 0.8 —
Jacques MARCESSE RN and allies 479 0.8 —
Laurent TOUZET Others 331 0.6 —
Alexandre FAURE Far left 327 0.6 —
Félix ZAGUEDOUN-REYNAUD Others 7 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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