Riding profile

Drôme — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Drôme

The question

Drôme — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Drôme — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Drôme, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thibaut MONNIER

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.2%
  • Left (NFP) 25.4%
  • LR and allies 25.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereDrôme — 4ème circonscription 42.2%25.4%25.1%3.3%
Provincial averageDrôme 40.0% +2.2 29.0% −3.6 17.0% +8.0 10.7% −7.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.2 29.5% −4.1 12.2% +12.9 20.6% −17.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thibaut MONNIER Elected RN and allies 26,621 38.4 —
Isabelle PAGANI Left (NFP) 18,222 26.3 —
Emmanuelle ANTHOINE LR and allies 16,635 24.0 —
Olivier GAFA Centre (Ensemble) 5,762 8.3 —
Guy BERMOND Sovereignists 798 1.1 —
Evelyne REYBERT RN and allies 702 1.0 —
Monique BERNARD Far left 634 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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