Riding profile

Isère — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Isère

The question

Isère — 9ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Isère — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Isère, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 38% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sandrine NOSBÉ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
10.4
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.6%
  • Left (NFP) 27.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.3%
  • LR and allies 9.0%
  • Others 2.2%
  • Far left 1.0%
  • Greens 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereIsère — 9ème circonscription 37.6%27.3%22.3%9.0%
Provincial averageIsère 37.4% +0.3 32.2% −5.0 16.2% +6.1 10.9% −2.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.7 29.5% −2.2 20.6% +1.7 12.2% −3.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cécile BENE RN and allies 24,106 34.0 —
Sandrine NOSBÉ Elected Left (NFP) 19,825 28.0 —
Élodie JACQUIER-LAFORGE Centre (Ensemble) 19,307 27.3 —
Héloïse BARADEL LR and allies 5,468 7.7 —
Gaelle OFFRANC PIRET Greens 833 1.2 —
Claude DETROYAT Far left 756 1.1 —
Salvador VERO RN and allies 397 0.6 —
Valentin RADLO Others 124 0.2 —
Emma VASSAL Far left 9 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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