Riding profile

Isère — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Isère

The question

Isère — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Isère — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Isère, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 51% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Élisa MARTIN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 50.5%
  • RN and allies 26.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.0%
  • LR and allies 5.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereIsère — 3ème circonscription 50.5%26.4%15.0%5.0%
Provincial averageIsère 32.2% +18.3 37.4% −11.0 16.2% −1.1 10.9% −6.0
National averageFrance 29.5% +21.0 36.0% −9.6 20.6% −5.5 12.2% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Élisa MARTIN Elected Left (NFP) 16,933 42.8 —
Christel DUPRÉ RN and allies 8,989 22.7 —
Émilie CHALAS Centre (Ensemble) 7,908 20.0 —
Stéphane GEMMANI Left (NFP) 3,059 7.7 —
Coline GENEVOIS LR and allies 1,103 2.8 —
M'Hamed BENHAROUGA LR and allies 370 0.9 —
Khemisti BOUBEKER Left (NFP) 289 0.7 —
Isabelle FASSION RN and allies 251 0.6 —
Catherine BRUN Far left 223 0.6 —
Louiliam CLOT Greens 181 0.5 —
Baptiste ANGLADE Far left 142 0.4 —
Samuel LE FOURN Far left 82 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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