Riding profile

Isère — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Isère

The question

Isère — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Isère — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Isère, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hugo PREVOST

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
10.7
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.5%
  • RN and allies 21.3%
  • LR and allies 8.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereIsère — 1ère circonscription 39.2%28.5%21.3%8.2%
Provincial averageIsère 32.2% +7.0 16.2% +12.3 37.4% −16.1 10.9% −2.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +9.7 20.6% +7.9 36.0% −14.7 12.2% −4.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hugo PREVOST Elected Left (NFP) 25,207 40.2
Olivier VÉRAN Centre (Ensemble) 21,089 33.6
Alexandre LACROIX RN and allies 11,504 18.3
Nathalie BÉRANGER LR and allies 4,379 7.0
Rémi ADAM Far left 541 0.9
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next