Riding profile
Loire — 1ère circonscription
The question
Loire — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Loire — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Loire, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 39% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pierrick COURBON
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 95%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 11%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLoire — 1ère circonscription | 39.4% | 34.8% | 18.7% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 27.8% +11.6 | 38.6% −3.8 | 16.7% +1.9 | 21.6% −17.6 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +9.9 | 36.0% −1.2 | 20.6% −1.9 | 12.2% −8.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierrick COURBON Elected | Left (NFP) | 16,778 | 40.3 | — |
| Marie SIMON | RN and allies | 13,296 | 32.0 | — |
| Quentin BATAILLON | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,864 | 23.7 | — |
| Xavier KEMLIN | LR and allies | 811 | 1.9 | — |
| Romain BROSSARD | Far left | 473 | 1.1 | — |
| François CHORD | LR and allies | 366 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Loire — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Loire — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Loire — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Rhône — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Loire — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next