Riding profile

Lozère — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Lozère

The question

Lozère — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Lozère — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Lozère, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 35% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sophie PANTEL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
75%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.0%
  • Left (NFP) 32.8%
  • LR and allies 24.0%
  • Others 7.6%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Others
HereLozère — 1ère circonscription 35.0%32.8%24.0%7.6%
Provincial averageLozère 35.0% 32.8% 24.0% 7.6%
National averageFrance 36.0% −1.0 29.5% +3.3 12.2% +11.7 3.9% +3.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sophie PANTEL Elected Left (NFP) 15,292 35.2
Luc-Etienne GOUSSEAU RN and allies 14,743 33.9
Pierre MOREL A L'HUISSIER LR and allies 10,451 24.0
Michel GUIRAL Others 2,627 6.0
Annie SOUCHON Far left 284 0.7
Dja ZIDOUN Left (NFP) 81 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next