Riding profile
Hérault — 4ème circonscription
The question
Hérault — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Hérault — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Manon BOUQUIN
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.1
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHérault — 4ème circonscription | 46.2% | 32.1% | 17.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageHérault | 42.0% +4.2 | 32.4% −0.4 | 14.8% +2.7 | 2.2% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +10.2 | 29.5% +2.6 | 20.6% −3.1 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon BOUQUIN Elected | RN and allies | 35,216 | 41.3 | — |
| Sébastien ROME | Left (NFP) | 28,171 | 33.0 | — |
| Jean-François ELIAOU | Centre (Ensemble) | 19,260 | 22.6 | — |
| Bleuette SIMON | RN and allies | 1,822 | 2.1 | — |
| Florence LARUE | Far left | 886 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Hérault — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Hérault — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Hérault — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gard — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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