Riding profile
Hérault — 1ère circonscription
The question
Hérault — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hérault — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 79%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.6
- P(close race)
- 42%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHérault — 1ère circonscription | 38.7% | 33.1% | 17.5% | 7.9% |
| Provincial averageHérault | 42.0% −3.3 | 32.4% +0.7 | 14.8% +2.7 | 7.1% +0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +2.8 | 29.5% +3.6 | 20.6% −3.1 | 12.2% −4.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josyan OLIVA | RN and allies | 20,891 | 34.1 | — |
| Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,851 | 34.0 | — |
| Patricia MIRALLES | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,806 | 22.5 | — |
| Eric CHAVEROCHE | LR and allies | 2,626 | 4.3 | — |
| Stéphanie LÉVY | LR and allies | 1,479 | 2.4 | — |
| Alexandre ARGUEL | RN and allies | 1,104 | 1.8 | — |
| Morgane LACHIVER | Far left | 491 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Hérault — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Hérault — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gard — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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