Riding profile

Hérault — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Hérault

The question

Hérault — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hérault — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
5.6
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.7%
  • Left (NFP) 33.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.5%
  • LR and allies 7.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereHérault — 1ère circonscription 38.7%33.1%17.5%7.9%
Provincial averageHérault 42.0% −3.3 32.4% +0.7 14.8% +2.7 7.1% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +2.8 29.5% +3.6 20.6% −3.1 12.2% −4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Josyan OLIVA RN and allies 20,891 34.1
Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS Elected Left (NFP) 20,851 34.0
Patricia MIRALLES Centre (Ensemble) 13,806 22.5
Eric CHAVEROCHE LR and allies 2,626 4.3
Stéphanie LÉVY LR and allies 1,479 2.4
Alexandre ARGUEL RN and allies 1,104 1.8
Morgane LACHIVER Far left 491 0.8
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next