Riding profile

Hérault — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hérault

The question

Hérault — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Hérault — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Charles ALLONCLE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.7%
  • Left (NFP) 28.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.9%
  • LR and allies 7.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereHérault — 9ème circonscription 41.7%28.4%19.9%7.3%
Provincial averageHérault 42.0% −0.3 32.4% −4.1 14.8% +5.1 7.1% +0.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.7 29.5% −1.1 20.6% −0.6 12.2% −5.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Charles ALLONCLE Elected RN and allies 21,734 36.4 —
Nadia BELAOUNI Left (NFP) 17,463 29.3 —
Patrick VIGNAL Centre (Ensemble) 14,918 25.0 —
Anthony BELIN LR and allies 2,046 3.4 —
Frédéric BORT RN and allies 1,481 2.5 —
William VISTE LR and allies 899 1.5 —
Patrice BOCCADIFUOCO LR and allies 584 1.0 —
Nathalie PEIRO Far left 459 0.8 —
Géry LALY LR and allies 82 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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