Riding profile
Hérault — 2ème circonscription
The question
Hérault — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Hérault — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hérault, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 57% vote share, against 20% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nathalie OZIOL
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHérault — 2ème circonscription | 57.2% | 19.9% | 12.0% | 8.2% |
| Provincial averageHérault | 32.4% +24.7 | 42.0% −22.1 | 14.8% −2.8 | 7.1% +1.1 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +27.7 | 36.0% −16.1 | 20.6% −8.6 | 12.2% −4.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie OZIOL Elected | Left (NFP) | 24,707 | 58.2 | — |
| Robert LE STUM | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,230 | 17.0 | — |
| Flavia MANGANO | RN and allies | 7,202 | 17.0 | — |
| Sandra HOUÉE | LR and allies | 1,821 | 4.3 | — |
| Christelle BOYER | LR and allies | 1,157 | 2.7 | — |
| Didier MICHEL | Far left | 301 | 0.7 | — |
| Hugo LEBOON | Others | 19 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Hérault — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Hérault — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Hérault — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Hérault — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Gard — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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