Riding profile
Aveyron — 1ère circonscription
The question
Aveyron — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?
Editorial read
Aveyron — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Aveyron, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 38% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stéphane MAZARS
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAveyron — 1ère circonscription | 38.4% | 34.3% | 21.9% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageAveyron | 30.5% +8.0 | 36.3% −1.9 | 27.3% −5.4 | 1.7% +1.0 |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +17.8 | 36.0% −1.6 | 29.5% −7.6 | 12.2% −9.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane MAZARS Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 24,349 | 43.6 | — |
| Jean-Philippe CHARTIER | RN and allies | 17,586 | 31.5 | — |
| Léon THEBAULT | Left (NFP) | 12,702 | 22.7 | — |
| Antoine DA CRUZ | LR and allies | 811 | 1.4 | — |
| Arlette SAINT-AVIT | Far left | 418 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Cantal — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aveyron — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Aveyron — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Cantal — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Tarn — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Lozère — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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