Riding profile

Aveyron — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Aveyron

The question

Aveyron — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Aveyron — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aveyron, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 36% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Laurent ALEXANDRE

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
72%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.0%
  • Left (NFP) 31.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.4%
  • Sovereignists 2.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Sovereignists
HereAveyron — 2ème circonscription 36.0%31.8%25.4%2.4%
Provincial averageAveyron 36.3% −0.3 27.3% +4.6 30.5% −5.0 2.4%
National averageFrance 36.0% 29.5% +2.3 20.6% +4.9 1.6% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Christine PAROLIN RN and allies 15,923 33.1 —
Laurent ALEXANDRE Elected Left (NFP) 15,738 32.7 —
Samuel DEGUARA Centre (Ensemble) 14,690 30.6 —
Jean-Philippe ARMET Sovereignists 1,141 2.4 —
Lucile EL HEDRI Far left 595 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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