Riding profile

Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Tarn-et-Garonne

The question

Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Tarn-et-Garonne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 47% vote share, against 36% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Brigitte BAREGES

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.7%
  • Left (NFP) 35.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.2%
  • Others 3.2%
  • Far left 1.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereTarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription 46.7%35.9%11.2%3.2%
Provincial averageTarn-et-Garonne 49.3% −2.6 34.3% +1.6 10.9% +0.3 2.8% +0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.7 29.5% +6.4 20.6% −9.4 3.9% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brigitte BAREGES Elected RN and allies 27,772 43.9 —
Valérie RABAULT Left (NFP) 23,271 36.8 —
Catherine SIMONIN-BENAZET Centre (Ensemble) 9,791 15.5 —
Richard BLANCO Far left 1,178 1.9 —
Jean-François GRILHAULT DES FONTAINES Others 769 1.2 —
Alain BRU Centre (Ensemble) 439 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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