Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to Left (NFP)?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 35% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Corinne VIGNON

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Competitive

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
22%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 35.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.4%
  • RN and allies 25.6%
  • LR and allies 6.9%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereHaute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription 35.2%29.4%25.6%6.9%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 38.2% −3.0 22.5% +6.9 33.4% −7.9 2.1% +4.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +5.7 20.6% +8.9 36.0% −10.4 12.2% −5.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Agathe ROBY Left (NFP) 21,064 34.6 —
Corinne VIGNON Elected Centre (Ensemble) 20,227 33.2 —
Stéphanie ALARCON RN and allies 13,022 21.4 —
Clément DELMAS LR and allies 3,307 5.4 —
Baptiste ROBERT Left (NFP) 828 1.4 —
Marie-Pierre BOUCHET Centre (Ensemble) 731 1.2 —
Philippe SOLERI RN and allies 683 1.1 —
Domitille ALLORANT Greens 613 1.0 —
Malena ADRADA Far left 254 0.4 —
Philippe MAURY LR and allies 162 0.3 —
Noël NÉMOUTHÉ Others 29 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next