Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 40% vote share, against 31% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anne STAMBACH-TERRENOIR

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 98%
Mean margin (pts): 8.5
P(close race): 5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 39.8%
RN and allies 31.3%
Centre (Ensemble) 23.0%
Others 2.0%
Greens 2.0%
LR and allies 1.2%
Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription	39.8%	31.3%	23.0%	2.0%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne	38.2% +1.6	33.4% −2.1	22.5% +0.4	2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance	29.5% +10.3	36.0% −4.7	20.6% +2.4	3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+8.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Anne STAMBACH-TERRENOIR Elected	Left (NFP)	30,402	40.5	—
Jean-Luc LAGLEIZE	Centre (Ensemble)	20,934	27.9	—
Frank KHALIFA	RN and allies	19,815	26.4	—
Pauline LORANS	RN and allies	1,366	1.8	—
Maxime MAYORAL	Greens	1,306	1.7	—
Arthur NESTIER	Greens	606	0.8	—
Clotilde BARTHÉLÉMY	Far left	588	0.8	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next