Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 36% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jacques OBERTI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
82%
Mean margin (pts)
0.7
P(close race)
36%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 35.5%
  • RN and allies 34.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.0%
  • Others 2.7%
  • LR and allies 1.3%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription 35.5%34.8%25.0%2.7%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 38.2% −2.7 33.4% +1.4 22.5% +2.5 2.2% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +6.0 36.0% −1.1 20.6% +4.4 3.9% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jacques OBERTI Elected Left (NFP) 28,631 36.2 —
Caroline FALGAS-COLOMINA RN and allies 23,993 30.4 —
Dominique FAURE Centre (Ensemble) 22,910 29.0 —
Romain GRESLE RN and allies 1,123 1.4 —
Frédérique SOULIER Centre (Ensemble) 728 0.9 —
Adrien BOURGEADE Greens 558 0.7 —
Lucile SOUCHE Far left 523 0.7 —
Gilles CORSO Others 389 0.5 —
Arlette BOUZON Others 158 0.2 —
François UBEDA LR and allies 1 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next