Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christophe BEX

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
10.9
P(close race)
9%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.2%
  • Left (NFP) 32.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription 43.2%32.3%19.8%2.0%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 33.4% +9.8 38.2% −6.0 22.5% −2.8 2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.2 29.5% +2.8 20.6% −0.8 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gaëtan INARD RN and allies 30,042 40.4 —
Christophe BEX Elected Left (NFP) 24,681 33.2 —
Elisabeth TOUTUT-PICARD Centre (Ensemble) 18,462 24.8 —
Hervé BERGNES Far left 1,223 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next