Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 35% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Arnaud SIMION

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.3%
  • Left (NFP) 33.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.6%
  • Greens 2.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Greens
HereHaute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription 35.3%33.3%24.6%2.7%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 33.4% +1.8 38.2% −4.9 22.5% +2.1 1.7% +1.0
National averageFrance 36.0% −0.7 29.5% +3.8 20.6% +4.1 2.1% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Arnaud SIMION Elected Left (NFP) 29,031 34.0 —
Nadine DEMANGE-FIERLEJ RN and allies 26,379 30.9 —
Monique IBORRA Centre (Ensemble) 25,256 29.6 —
Sandra LAPORTE Greens 2,773 3.3 —
Annaël GÉRARD RN and allies 1,104 1.3 —
Michèle Marie Rose Albertine PUEL Far left 774 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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