Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 52% vote share, against 24% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

François PIQUEMAL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 52.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 23.8%
  • RN and allies 20.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription 52.4%23.8%20.1%2.0%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 38.2% +14.1 22.5% +1.3 33.4% −13.3 2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +22.9 20.6% +3.2 36.0% −15.9 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François PIQUEMAL Elected Left (NFP) 25,681 53.4 —
Margaux PECH Centre (Ensemble) 12,950 26.9 —
Audrey LARREGLE RN and allies 7,531 15.7 —
Jacme DELMAS Centre (Ensemble) 945 2.0 —
Arthur COTTREL RN and allies 734 1.5 —
Patrick MARCIREAU Far left 262 0.5 —
Paul CAZALS Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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