Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 45% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hadrien CLOUET

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 44.5%
  • RN and allies 25.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.7%
  • Others 3.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription 44.5%25.9%24.7%3.0%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 38.2% +6.3 33.4% −7.5 22.5% +2.2 2.2% +0.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +15.0 36.0% −10.0 20.6% +4.1 3.9% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hadrien CLOUET Elected Left (NFP) 26,985 45.5 —
Elodie HOBET Centre (Ensemble) 16,063 27.1 —
Lola CHAMBELIN RN and allies 12,636 21.3 —
Evelyne BOUJAT Centre (Ensemble) 1,601 2.7 —
Jean-Marie TROUILLET RN and allies 1,028 1.7 —
Alexis DE BERRANGER Others 574 1.0 —
Olivier LE PENVEN Far left 390 0.7 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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