Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 47% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christine ARRIGHI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 46.5%
  • RN and allies 29.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription 46.5%29.2%19.4%2.0%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 38.2% +8.3 33.4% −4.2 22.5% −3.1 2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +17.0 36.0% −6.7 20.6% −1.1 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christine ARRIGHI Elected Left (NFP) 26,472 47.5 —
Caroline BEOUT RN and allies 13,865 24.9 —
Florian DELRIEU Centre (Ensemble) 12,451 22.4 —
Camille CLINET Centre (Ensemble) 1,202 2.2 —
Christelle FILIPPI RN and allies 813 1.5 —
Henri MARTIN Far left 569 1.0 —
Nathanaëlle LOUBET--SRUH Far left 322 0.6 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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