Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-François PORTARRIEU

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
17.4
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.2%
  • Left (NFP) 26.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.3%
  • Others 2.1%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereHaute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription 44.2%26.8%24.3%2.1%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne 33.4% +10.8 38.2% −11.4 22.5% +1.8 2.2%
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.2 29.5% −2.7 20.6% +3.8 3.9% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien LEONARDELLI RN and allies 29,897 39.5 —
Jean-François PORTARRIEU Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,267 29.4 —
Sylvie ESPAGNOLLE Left (NFP) 20,925 27.7 —
Dominique PIUSSAN RN and allies 1,443 1.9 —
Michel LASERGE Far left 1,000 1.3 —
Sylvie BONNEMAISON Others 121 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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