Riding profile
Ariège — 2ème circonscription
The question
Ariège — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Ariège — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ariège, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 43% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Laurent PANIFOUS
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Toss-up
- Probability
- 50%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAriège — 2ème circonscription | 45.0% | 43.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageAriège | 46.2% −1.2 | 42.9% +0.2 | 3.5% +2.3 | 5.5% −1.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +15.5 | 36.0% +7.1 | 12.2% −6.4 | 1.1% +3.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent PANIFOUS Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,911 | 48.3 | — |
| Michèle ALOZY | RN and allies | 16,678 | 40.4 | — |
| Yann DE KERIMEL | LR and allies | 2,023 | 4.9 | — |
| Théodora TESTARD | Far left | 1,852 | 4.5 | — |
| Alexandra TARRIEUX-ANTRANIKIAN | RN and allies | 804 | 1.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Ariège — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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