Riding profile
Ariège — 1ère circonscription
The question
Ariège — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Ariège — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Ariège, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 47% vote share, against 43% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Martine FROGER
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 73%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 54%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Far left | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAriège — 1ère circonscription | 47.4% | 42.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAriège | 46.2% +1.2 | 42.9% −0.2 | 5.5% +1.3 | 1.9% |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +17.9 | 36.0% +6.7 | 1.1% +5.7 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martine FROGER Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,245 | 50.7 | — |
| Jean-Marc GARNIER | RN and allies | 15,049 | 39.7 | — |
| Gisèle LAPEYRE | Far left | 2,756 | 7.3 | — |
| Pascal MASCETTI | RN and allies | 881 | 2.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Ariège — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aude — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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