Riding profile

Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Garonne

The question

Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Garonne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 36% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joël AVIRAGNET

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 96%
Mean margin (pts): 8.6
P(close race): 7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 44.6%
Left (NFP) 36.0%
Centre (Ensemble) 11.1%
LR and allies 4.3%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.3%
Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereHaute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription	44.6%	36.0%	11.1%	4.3%
Provincial averageHaute-Garonne	33.4% +11.1	38.2% −2.3	22.5% −11.4	2.1% +2.2
National averageFrance	36.0% +8.6	29.5% +6.5	20.6% −9.5	12.2% −7.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+8.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Loïc DELCHARD	RN and allies	23,893	40.5	—
Joël AVIRAGNET Elected	Left (NFP)	21,751	36.9	—
Céline LAURENTIES-BARRERE	Centre (Ensemble)	9,227	15.7	—
Wilfried SERRE	LR and allies	1,805	3.1	—
Lucie VIOLA	Sovereignists	746	1.3	—
Alain PERES	RN and allies	728	1.2	—
Martine GUIRAUD	Far left	536	0.9	—
Dominique DARROZÉS	Centre (Ensemble)	257	0.4	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next