Riding profile

Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Hautes-Pyrénées

The question

Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Hautes-Pyrénées, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for another bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sylvie FERRER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Others

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
35%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.2%
  • Others 29.6%
  • Left (NFP) 27.3%
  • LR and allies 6.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Others Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereHautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription 36.2%29.6%27.3%6.0%
Provincial averageHautes-Pyrénées 38.6% −2.4 17.0% +12.6 27.2% 6.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.3 3.9% +25.7 29.5% −2.2 12.2% −6.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Christine SORIN RN and allies 20,272 34.1 —
Sylvie FERRER Elected Left (NFP) 17,564 29.5 —
Jean-Bernard SEMPASTOUS Others 14,776 24.8 —
Philippe EVON LR and allies 3,047 5.1 —
Pierre CLARET Others 2,626 4.4 —
Catherine BONNECARRERE RN and allies 656 1.1 —
Maria SAEZ Far left 533 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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