Riding profile

Gers — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gers

The question

Gers — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Gers — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gers, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 43% vote share, against 38% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

David TAUPIAC

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
5.0
P(close race)
43%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 42.7%
  • RN and allies 37.7%
  • LR and allies 14.5%
  • Others 4.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Others
HereGers — 2ème circonscription 42.7%37.7%14.5%4.2%
Provincial averageGers 34.6% +8.1 38.8% −1.1 7.9% +6.6 4.1% +0.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +13.2 36.0% +1.8 12.2% +2.3 3.9% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David TAUPIAC Elected Left (NFP) 24,185 45.8
Alice CENDRÉ RN and allies 18,739 35.5
Barbara NETO LR and allies 7,416 14.0
Jean-Luc DAVEZAC Others 1,293 2.5
Martine ARNAUDY RN and allies 679 1.3
Michèle MARTIN Far left 481 0.9
Abla LAZORAT Others 13 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next